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定制家居渠道化发展势不可挡 未来几年国内将催生“中国式宜家”

发布于:2018-12-20 14:38

2018年定制巨头的发展有什么特殊的变化,在未来5年的竞争中又将会如何分化,用什么战略才能在未来的巨头竞争中具有领先优势?
 
What are the special changes in the development of customized giants in 2018, how will they differentiate in the next five years'competition, and with what strategies can they have a leading edge in the future giant competition?
 
 
 
这些问题,我想在一个更大范畴内,或者在一个更大的框架下来思考,来定义,那么剩下的便是小框架内的问题,容易理解,大框架内都是小问题。
 
These problems, I want to think in a larger context, or in a larger framework, to define, then the remaining is within a small framework, easy to understand, within a larger framework are small issues.
 
 
 
这个大框架的问题,我认为是如何理解未来定制的发展方向,或者具体点说,定制是产品化方向进化,还是渠道化方向进化,还是向整装方式进化?对定制三种进化方向的思考,将会在未来数年,决定定制企业的目标、战略和战术,甚至生死。
 
The question of this big framework is how to understand the development direction of customization in the future, or specifically, whether customization will evolve in the direction of product, channel or the way of integration? The thinking of three evolution directions of customization will determine the goal, strategy and tactics of customization enterprises, even life and death in the coming years.
 
 
 
 
 
关于定制进化的三种路径
 
Three Paths of Customization Evolution
 
 
 
2017年3月7日,我在公号“未来商业研究”首发并陆续连载了《定制巨头的战争》上中下三篇文章,在行业引起了很多深度思考。
 
On March 7, 2017, I launched and serialized three articles on "The War of Custom Majors" under the public name "Future Business Research", which aroused a lot of deep thinking in the industry.
 
 
 
时隔一年后观察,定制巨头的发展有什么特殊的变化,在未来5年的竞争中又将会如何分化,用什么战略才能在未来的巨头竞争中具有领先优势?
 
After one year, what special changes have taken place in the development of customized giants? How will they differentiate in the next five years? What strategies can we use to gain a leading edge in the future giant competition?
 
 
 
这些问题,我想在一个更大范畴内,或者在一个更大的框架下来思考,来定义,那么剩下的便是小框架内的问题,容易理解,大框架内都是小问题。
 
These problems, I want to think in a larger context, or in a larger framework, to define, then the remaining is within a small framework, easy to understand, within a larger framework are small issues.
 
 
 
这个大框架的问题,我认为是如何理解未来定制的发展方向,或者具体点说,定制是产品化方向进化,还是渠道化方向进化,还是向整装方式进化?对定制三种进化方向的思考,将会在未来数年,决定定制企业的目标、战略和战术,甚至生死。
 
The question of this big framework is how to understand the development direction of customization in the future, or specifically, whether customization will evolve in the direction of product, channel or the way of integration? The thinking of three evolution directions of customization will determine the goal, strategy and tactics of customization enterprises, even life and death in the coming years.
 
 
 
定制企业往这三种方向发展,都是合理的选择。产品化方向进化容易理解,这是很多企业正在做的事情,不管是极致单品化方向发展,还是很多企业实施的大家居战略,我认为都是在产品逻辑上演进。
 
Customization enterprises to develop in these three directions are reasonable choices. Evolution of product orientation is easy to understand. This is what many enterprises are doing. Whether it is the development of single product orientation or the big home strategy implemented by many enterprises, I think it is the evolution of product logic.
 
 
 
定制整装化,这是定制企业往前演进的结果,也是部分大定制企业的梦想,但这个进化方式,看起来很美好,看起来顺利成章,但应该是难度最高的进化方式。
 
Customization is the result of the evolution of customization enterprises. It is also the dream of some large customization enterprises. However, this evolutionary way looks beautiful and smooth, but it should be the most difficult one.
 
 
 
从渠道化演进来看定制品类家居,为什么会有渠道化方向演进可能,演进方向又如何,最成功渠道化演进者会成成为什么样的企业?
 
From the perspective of channelization evolution, why is it possible for customized household products to evolve in the direction of channelization? What is the direction of evolution? What kind of enterprise will the most successful channelized Evolver become?
 
 
 
本篇关于定制家居的发展,提出了很多问题,我不想就所有的问题来分析,但问题,才是决定答案的关键,如果你能对相关问题进行符合逻辑的系统分析,而不是只见树木不见森林,那么,对企业的成长都十分有利,目标清楚,答案才会有。
 
This article on the development of customized home, put forward many questions, I do not want to analyze all the questions, but the key to the answer is the question, if you can make a logical systematic analysis of the relevant issues, rather than only see trees but not forests, then, the growth of enterprises are very beneficial, clear objectives, the answer will be.
 
 
 
定制渠道化进化的基本逻辑
 
The Basic Logic of Customization Channelization Evolution
 
 
 
我仅就一个问题来分析,那就是定制渠道化发展倾向,为什么定制企业会有渠道化方向发展的冲动,这个问题基于三个方面,
 
I will only analyze one question, that is, the tendency of customization channelization development, why customization enterprises have the impulse to develop in the direction of channelization, which is based on three aspects.
 
 
 
第一个方面是用户的需求,如果没有用户对空间系统化解决方案的需求,定制家居渠道化便无从谈起。据统计,整个家居产业近几年的平均增长率不到10%,而整个定制家居品类行业平均增长率在30%以上,这说明,定制家居企业的发展,部分是增量市场的增长,但更多的已经进入到存量市场的增长,而这个存量市场是需要重新定义的存量市场,是原来属于所谓成品家具的市场,被定制行业重新定义为全屋定制市场后的增长,其结果是整体市场增长率并不高,但全屋定制增长率任然非常可观。
 
The first aspect is the user's needs. If there is no user's demand for a systematic solution to space, channelization of customized home will be impossible to talk about. According to statistics, the average growth rate of the whole household industry in recent years is less than 10%, while the average growth rate of the whole customized household products industry is more than 30%. This shows that the development of customized household enterprises is partly the growth of the incremental market, but more have entered the growth of the stock market, which needs to be redefined as the stock market, which originally belongs to the so-called manufacturer. The market of furniture has been redefined by the customization industry as the growth of the whole house customization market. As a result, the overall market growth rate is not high, but the growth rate of the whole house customization is still very considerable.
 
 
 
第二个是定制的入口属性所决定。由于定制是介于硬装和软装之间的过度状态,天然对后端众多软装产品具有引流功能,对于那些有实力转化这些流量的企业,增加品类扩大单个用户的价值,就是最自然的选择。但这个转化能力,并不是所有的定制企业都具备。同样定制企业,规模不同,基因不同,能力也不同,互联网属性更强的定制企业,在这个方面具备更大的优势。
 
The second is determined by the customized entry attributes. Because customization is an excessive state between hard and soft packages, it naturally has drainage function for many soft packaged products in the back end. For those enterprises that have the strength to transform these flows, increasing categories and expanding the value of individual users is the most natural choice. But this transformation capability is not available to all customized enterprises. Similarly, customized enterprises have different scales, genes and capabilities. Customized enterprises with stronger Internet attributes have greater advantages in this respect.
 
 
 
第三是竞争使然。由于定制企业野蛮生长,互不越界的时代已经过去,定制企业的层次已经变得分明,巨头,第二阵营,第三阵营,其他阵营等。巨头之后的多数企业规模较小,以单品发展的居多,在新的竞争形势下,发展变得困难。
 
The third is competition. Because of the barbaric growth of customized enterprises, the era of cross-border has passed, the hierarchy of customized enterprises has become clear, giants, the second camp, the third camp, other camps and so on. After the giant, most of the enterprises are small in scale, and most of them develop single products. Under the new competitive situation, the development becomes difficult.

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