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美股连续两日重挫 全球知名投行已对后市作出判断

发布于:2018-12-15 13:27

美股接连受到重挫,五大科技股“FAANG”集体进入技术性熊市,长达十年的牛市真的要终结了吗?
 
U.S. stocks have suffered a series of setbacks. Five big technology stocks, FAANG, have entered the technical bear market collectively. Is the bull market that lasted for ten years really coming to an end?
 
 
 
当地时间11月20日,美股继前一交易日(11月19日)之后继续大幅收跌。道指重挫551.8点,报24465.64点,回吐今年涨幅。遭受重创的科技股继续下挫,使纳指跌穿7000点整数关口,报6908.82点。标普500指数跌48.84点,报2641.89点。
 
On Nov. 20, local time, U.S. stocks continued to fall sharply after the previous trading day (Nov. 19). The Dow Index fell 551.8 points to 24465.64 points, reversing this year's gains. The hard-hit technology stocks continued to fall, pushing the index through the 7,000-point integer level to 6908.82. The S&P 500 index fell 48.84 points to 2641.89.
 
 
 
美股五大科技股“FAANG”涨跌不一——苹果继续下挫,大跌4.78%,奈飞下跌1.34%,亚马逊下跌1.11%,谷歌和Facebook微涨。
 
Five major U.S. technology stocks, FAANG, rose and fell differently --- Apple continued to fall 4.78%, Neifei fell 1.34%, Amazon fell 1.11%, Google and Facebook rose slightly.
 
 
 
根据华尔街的定义,股价从52个星期内的高点下跌超过20%,就意味着熊市。
 
By Wall Street's definition, a decline of more than 20% from a 52-week high means a bear market.
 
 
 
Facebook和谷歌均在7月触及52周高点,分别为每股218.62美元和1291.44美元。Netflix在6月达到每股423.21美元的峰值。亚马逊和苹果分别在9月份和10月份触及每股2550.50美元和233.47美元的52周高点。
 
Facebook and Google both hit 52-week highs in July, at $218.62 and $1291.44 per share, respectively. Netflix peaked at $423.21 a share in June. Amazon and Apple hit 52-week highs of $2550.50 and $233.47 in September and October, respectively.
 
 
 
但截至11月20日,这五只明星科技股均已下跌至熊市。其中,Facebook下跌幅度最大,达40.6%,跌幅最小的谷歌也达到22%。
 
But as of November 20, all five star technology stocks had fallen to a bear market. Among them, Facebook fell the most, by 40.6%, and Google, the smallest, by 22%.
 
 
 
自触及52周高位后,FAANG下跌的总市值已经达到1.02万亿美元。其中,Facebook:2530亿美元。亚马逊:2800亿美元。苹果:2530亿美元。Netflix:670亿美元。Alphabet:1640亿美元。
 
Since hitting a 52-week high, FAANG's total market value has fallen to $1.02 trillion. Among them, Facebook: $253 billion. Amazon: $280 billion. Apple: $253 billion. Netflix: $67 billion. Alphabet: $164 billion.
 
 
 
据CNBC报道,高盛本周二下调了苹果的目标股价。该公司发报告称,“中国和其他新兴市场对苹果产品的需求疲软”,而用户对iPhone XR的接受度也令人失望。
 
Goldman Sachs cut its target share price Tuesday, according to CNBC. The company reported that "demand for Apple products in China and other emerging markets is weak" and users'acceptance of the iPhone XR is disappointing.
 
 
 
Facebook的股价已经从最高点下跌了40%。自今年夏天以来,Facebook的负面宣传层出不穷,尤其是Facebook高管在2016年美国大选中对外国干预活动的处理方式。
 
Facebook's share price has fallen 40% from its peak. Since this summer, Facebook's negative publicity has been on the rise, especially the way Facebook executives handled foreign intervention in the 2016 U.S. election.
 
 
 
亚马逊10月25日发布的第四季度展望远低于预期,之后股价持续下跌。而奈飞和谷歌的股价基本上与FAANG的其他股票在同步下跌。
 
Amazon's fourth-quarter outlook, released on October 25, was far below expectations, and its share price continued to fall. The shares of Neifei and Google are basically falling in tandem with other FAANG stocks.
 
 
 
 
 
华尔街对于牛市是否出现拐点的讨论日渐激烈。
 
Wall Street is increasingly debating whether there is a turning point in the bull market.
 
 
 
据CNN报道称,从美联储加息、油价暴跌到贸易摩擦,无一不体现出市场对当前环境的忧虑,这是引发美股暴跌的重要原因,但最重要的是,投资者已经做好了接受过去一年经济和利润爆发式增长即将终结的准备。
 
According to CNN reports, from the Fed's interest rate hike, oil price plunge to trade frictions, all reflect the market's worries about the current environment, which is an important reason for the U.S. stock market plunge, but most importantly, investors are ready to accept that the explosive economic and profit growth of the past year is coming to an end.
 
 
 
负责管理1560亿美元资产的Commonwealth Financial Network首席投资官Brad McMillan说:“造成这次回调的原因并不在于基本面的恶化,而在于市场对未来增长的信心变化。这种信心必须回归。很多公司可能已经达到了增长周期的高峰,投资者或已开始意识到这一点”,“如果对利润增长的信心恢复,我们可能会看到股市再次上涨。”
 
Brad McMillan, chief investment officer of Commonwealth Financial Network, which manages $156 billion in assets, said: "The reason for this correction is not the deterioration of fundamentals, but the change in market confidence in future growth. That confidence must return. Many companies may have reached the peak of the growth cycle, and investors may have begun to realize this. "If confidence in profit growth restores, we may see the stock market rise again."
 
 
 
TS Lombard公司全球宏观部门主管Dario Perkins称:“短期内,科技板块出人意料的出现疲软,将对全球经济造成重大影响。而FAANG股票继续大幅下挫将迫使美国股市腹背承压。”
 
Dario Perkins, head of global macro Department of TS Lombard, said: "In the short term, the unexpected weakness of the technology sector will have a major impact on the global economy. The FAANG stock market will continue to fall sharply, which will force the U.S. stock market to bear pressure on the belly and back.
 
 
 
高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin在周二写给投资人的信中写道:“简而言之,股市已开始消化经济放缓的风险。”
 
David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, wrote to investors Tuesday: "In short, the stock market has begun to absorb the risks of a slowdown."
 
 
 
不少机构都对后市的走向发表了观点。
 
Many institutions have expressed their views on the future trend of the market.
 
 
 
富国银行:对风险不以为然
 
Wells Fargo: Rejecting Risks
 
 
 
富国银行投资研究所(Wells Fargo Investment Institute)资深全球股票策略师雷恩(Wren)说,美联储是否会出现政策失误、全球经济增长是否会放缓、保证金是否会缩水等问题,一直在给投资者带来压力,导致股市抛售。
 
Wren, a senior global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said that the Fed's policy failures, the slowdown in global economic growth and the shrinkage of margins have been putting pressure on investors, leading to stock market sell-offs.
 
 
 
“如果你对所有这些问题的回答都是‘不’,这就是我们的答案,你就需要介入,买入一些股票。”雷恩说。
 
"If your answer to all these questions is no, that's our answer. You need to step in and buy some stocks." Ryan said.
 
 
 
雷恩称,从现在到年底,有两件事将决定市场走势。一是贸易问题,二是如果美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)在12月会议后的新闻发布会上发表声明或发表任何"不那么强硬"的言论,标普500指数可能反弹回2800-2900点区间。
 
From now on to the end of the year, there are two things that will determine market trends, Ryan said. One is trade. The other is that if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made a statement or made any "less tough" remarks at a press conference after the December meeting, the S&P 500 could rebound between 2800 and 2900.
 
 
 
在雷恩看来,基本面看起来仍是积极的,他说看好工业、非必需消费品、金融和医疗。
 
In Ryan's view, the fundamentals still look positive, he said, bullish on industry, consumer goods, finance and health care.
 

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